The primary project of the socialist party raises many hopes. Even if the information reached me these last months of the commission's development aroused in me a few reservations, I decided to remain silent, not wanting to disturb the near unanimity in the PS on this point. But what we learned this week - that neither MRC nor the GWP are unlikely to participate in their organization, not to mention other parties further away from us - has convinced me to speak, especially since the reasons given by these formations confront my own remarks. We were promised the primary across the left, massive and popular and we are heading towards the nomination of one candidate by socialist activists and supporters. If this configuration is confirmed, it may be insufficient to meet the challenges of 2012.
It would be wrong to believe that winning the next presidential election is mechanically acquired the left and So the PS. The right candidate will very likely the incumbent president - for 30 years, each occupant of the Elysee have done a second term. This candidate will be based on considerable economic pressure on the media support that we have already seen at work, and the state apparatus. He has kept the confidence of his camp if he continues to defend the tax shield, and he probably will seek to embody the movement and dynamics, while locking us in the role of defenders of archaic social gains.
The left hand does not as a favorite. She has one trump card - if it manages to mobilize - the people. A left victory in 2012 will be popular or will not. Popular mobilization will be allowed, ultimately, the match between the socialist project and the aspirations of the middle and popular, but it will depend, initially, by the ability of PS to associate these French, and all the left parties, selection and construction of the best candidate to beat the right. That's what the system must allow the primaries, as I have defended for over 10 years.
The primary will be successful if they fascinate the public, and the French are participating actors deeply involved in this process, and then wishing to carry and defend the candidate they have helped to select .
To succeed in this mobilization, the time factor is crucial. Primaries too short will not allow time for the French to be interested and take it. They give them all the less inclined they will not leave enough space Emerging applications in order to raise awareness and build: a limited period of debate will qu'inscrire in stone the initial state of public opinion. Primaries are primaries brief confirmation of what the polls say so. Does this mean a guarantee of victory? Far from it; recent experience proves it. The polls go, the French are. Even those who have ratified a nomination "obvious" may be the first to get tired, if it does not closely linked and associated. The primaries are only useful as an instrument of transformation of opinion. If they only become instant translation, they have been for nothing.
Duration is not the only fundamental fact: the date is also essential. Late primaries will not leave enough time for their winner to unify the party and left behind him, and part of the political landscape as the leading opponent of Nicolas Sarkozy. Again, the experience of 2006, like that of Francois Mitterrand, speaks for itself. If the candidate is nominated by the summer of 2011, it will all time to develop his campaign parallel to the current president. He or she may even lead left to battle for the Senate in September, and from the presidential backed this victory possible. Conversely, a designation fall, put away the post-senatorial, see the PS and its partners once again, is painstakingly put in running order as President of the Republic
The primary project currently being discussed within the Socialist Party advocates, contrary to this analysis, a process short and late. He discouraged to our loyal allies of the MRC and the PRG, which had yet directly joined our candidate in 2006. They may include: short and late primaries, the primaries of "confirmation", uncompetitive, destined to play a scenario written in advance, can be a serious attraction for them. They summarize, in fact, a designation of the socialist candidate amplified tens of thousands of supporters - even those, probably, who had joined us in 2006 before moving away from us. To mobilize very largely middle and working classes to enable them to appropriate a candidate that is truly theirs, and they support a whole year, we need primary spring 2011, and primary open long enough to serve the French and our partners, that the game worth the candle.
Julien DRAY
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